Saturday, March 3, 2012

Post-Combine mock draft

1. Colts - Stanford QB Andrew Luck
As we inch toward April 26, expect some media reports to emerge that the Colts are considering shopping the No. 1 pick. Indianapolis may as well gauge the value of the selection as it undergoes a full-on rebuild, changing schemes on both sides of the ball. The most likely endgame remains choosing a quarterback considered more pro-ready than any prospect to come out of college since Luck's predecessor in Indy. Look for Peyton Manning to be released next Wednesday night.

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2. Browns (Projected Trade) - Baylor QB Robert Griffin III
We usually avoid trade projections in mock drafts, but a deal for Griffin is virtually inevitable. The bidding war began at the Combine, and will continue right up until the draft's first night. While the Redskins will be ardent pursuers, we suspect the Rams would prefer to trade with Cleveland. It's no secret that St. Louis is high on LSU CB Morris Claiborne, who might not get past Tampa Bay at No. 5. The Rams would also have a better shot to be competitive in new coach Jeff Fisher's first season armed with two 2012 first-round picks, as opposed to one in 2012 and another in 2013.

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3. Vikings - USC LT Matt Kalil
Minnesota is overhauling the left side of its offensive line. Concussion-prone, 34-year-old LG Steve Hutchinson will likely be released before the start of free agency, and incumbent left tackle Charlie Johnson is moving inside to guard. Kalil is a dancing bear at 6-foot-7, 306 with terrific feet for pass protection, better-than-advertised strength, and 34 1/2-inch arms. Kalil is the prototype, the best player available, and can immediately turn the Vikings' greatest weakness into a strength.

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4. Rams (Projected Trade) - LSU CB Morris Claiborne
The Redskins' bid for the right to draft second ultimately won't offer enough immediacy for St. Louis. Perhaps taking slightly less from the Browns, the Rams drop down two spots to select the highest-rated defender on their board. Claiborne is 5-foot-11, 188, but covers like a 6'2" corner with lineman-like 33 1/4-inch arms. The converted wideout also boasts soft hands, intercepting 11 passes in his final two college seasons. The Rams have a bull?s-eye on offseason cornerback upgrades.

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5. Buccaneers - Alabama RB Trent Richardson
The best running back prospect to enter the pros since Adrian Peterson, Richardson received full medical clearance at the Combine following his February 3 knee scope. "It was about as minor and routine as you can get," said Dr. James Andrews, who performed the surgery. Richardson even has a leg up on Peterson coming out of college as a far superior blocking and pass-catching back. New Bucs coach Greg Schiano was one of college football's most run-heavy minds, and don't expect him to veer from that approach in the NFL. LeGarrette Blount can't get it done alone.

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6. Redskins - Texas A&M QB Ryan Tannehill
The Redskins are not expected to seriously pursue Peyton Manning or Matt Flynn in free agency. Mike Shanahan's most likely approach involves signing a stopgap passer like Kyle Orton or Rex Grossman, and opening the season with the veteran while the rookie waits. Missing out on RG3 wouldn't be a devastating setback because Tannehill might be a better fit for Shanahan's offense. Outstanding athletically in his own right, Tannehill is a strong-armed, more accurate version of Jake Locker.

7. Jaguars - South Carolina DE Melvin Ingram
Ingram is the top-ranked defensive end on most teams' draft boards, and reinforced the NFL's high opinion of him with a quietly impressive Combine. Ingram's three-cone time (6.83) was the third best by a defensive lineman since 2006, while his 4.18 short shuttle was bettered by only two defensive ends in Indy. Jaguars G.M. Gene Smith emphasizes effort and character in his top draft picks, and Ingram edges out North Carolina's Quinton Coples in both areas. More explosive off the edge than Alabama's Courtney Upshaw, Ingram will have no trouble going in the top ten.

8. Dolphins - North Carolina DE Quinton Coples
At 6-foot-6, 284 with 33 1/4-inch arms, Coples is a long-bodied pass rusher with a much more productive track record than widely given credit. The 21-year-old racked up 40.5 career tackles for loss and 24 sacks, earning first-team All-ACC honors as both a junior defensive tackle and senior defensive end. Transitioning from a 3-4 defense to a 4-3, the Dolphins' most glaring need is at left end opposite weak-side rusher Cameron Wake. It's also Coples' natural position at the NFL level.

9. Panthers - Mississippi State DT Fletcher Cox
Cox's stellar Combine was somewhat unfairly overshadowed by Dontari Poe's among interior D-Linemen. A better player than Poe on the field, Cox ran a linebacker-like 4.79 forty time at 6-foot-4, 298, and bench pressed 225 pounds 30 times with 34 1/2-inch arms. The Panthers believe they have a promising young corps on the defensive interior, but Ron Edwards, Terrell McClain, and Sione Fua lack Cox's difference-making upside. He's already the best pass rusher of the group.

10. Bills - Illinois DE Whitney Mercilus
No team in football is more desperate for pass rushers than the Bills, who lost out on Von Miller due to a last-minute reversal by Denver's front office the night before the 2011 draft. While one-year wonder concerns exist about Mercilus, he answered questions about his natural athleticism in Indianapolis by running the fourth fastest forty time (4.68) among defensive linemen and showing explosive potential with a 32-inch vertical and 9-foot-10 broad jump. Mercilus' motor never stops running, and he is big enough (6'4/261) to be an every-down NFL defensive end.

11. Chiefs - Memphis NT Dontari Poe
Opposing C-USA coaches feared Poe only enough to vote him second-team all conference as a junior, but human beings who weigh 346 pounds and move like this one don't last long on NFL draft boards. Poe is an absolute mammoth of a man with incredible brute strength (Combine-best 44 bench press reps), essentially a bigger, faster version of B.J. Raji with a cleaner off-field history. The interior D-Line is a need spot for Kansas City, as Kelly Gregg is expected to retire.

12. Seahawks - Oklahoma State WR Justin Blackmon
The Seahawks may not envision receiver as a weak spot entering late April, but they'll face an interesting dilemma should Blackmon, Kendall Wright and Michael Floyd all be available at No. 12. Blackmon's measurables are certainly not top-ten caliber, and his possession-style game tape is similar to Julio Jones' coming out of Alabama with two fewer inches, 13 fewer pounds, and a (likely) inferior forty time. There's still a good chance he'd be Seattle's highest rated player. Sidney Rice is coming off double shoulder surgeries, Golden Tate has mostly underwhelmed, and Mike Williams is an offseason release candidate after fracturing his left ankle and fibula last December.

13. Cardinals - Iowa OT Riley Reiff
Reiff was one of the Combine?s "fallers," measuring in with guard-like 33 1/4-inch arms and showing mediocre to below average strength (23 bench press reps). Reports out of Indianapolis had some teams projecting Reiff as a left guard or right tackle only. Reiff still fits the Russ Grimm mold as a more productive and efficient blocker than measurables indicate. The Cardinals plan to keep Levi Brown, but need a tackle to start opposite him. Reiff could play either the left or the right side.

14. Cowboys - Alabama OLB Courtney Upshaw
Dallas is expected to place the franchise tag on Anthony Spencer, but a long-term commitment won't be necessary if the team steals Upshaw near the end of the top 15. A versatile, high-motor pass rusher, Upshaw was also impressively durable (zero missed games due to injury) and productive (35.5 tackles for loss, 16.5 sacks) during his Alabama career. College teammate Dre Kirkpatrick would also be given consideration here, but Upshaw is the higher-rated draft prospect.

15. Eagles - USC DE Nick Perry
After retaining DeSean Jackson with the franchise tag, the Eagles are without a singular pressing need. Pass rushers are always welcomed by the organization, though, and Perry fits the Philly mantra as an explosive sack artist who flies off the edge. The Eagles can't count on knee-troubled former first-round pick Brandon Graham, and Darryl Tapp may be released ahead of his April 11 roster bonus. Perry would give the Birds another wave rusher behind Jason Babin and Trent Cole.

16. Jets - Notre Dame WR Michael Floyd
The Jets are thirsty for playmakers, so Baylor's Kendall Wright, Boise's Doug Martin, and LSU's Rueben Randle should all generate consideration at the 16th pick. Wright may be too much like Santonio Holmes, however, while Martin could be considered a reach. Randle is perhaps too raw. Floyd is a polished possession receiver with a deceptive vertical game and experience at all three receiver spots. Notre Dame's all-time leader in TD catches (37) is also dynamite in the red area.

17. Bengals - Baylor WR Kendall Wright
Make no mistake: Wright's 4.61 "official" forty time will not cost him. He'll run 4.4s at Baylor's Pro Day and be drafted in the top-20 picks. The Bengals can supplement their offensive arsenal with the top downfield playmaker in the draft, pairing Wright with A.J. Green to give Andy Dalton arguably the most promising receiver duo in the AFC. While David DeCastro and Dre Kirkpatrick are also worthy of pick No. 17, the opportunity to draft Wright is simply too appealing to pass up.

18. Chargers - Stanford G David DeCastro
DeCastro would be drafted higher if he didn't play one of football's least valued positions, and he still might be. In this scenario, though, the Chargers couldn't afford to let the draft's best interior O-Lineman slip through their hands. LG Kris Dielman announced his retirement on Thursday, and the team's run blocking was already becoming a soft spot. DeCastro can offer a quick remedy.

19. Bears - Alabama CB Dre Kirkpatrick
The Bears may prefer one of the top three wideouts to fall to No. 19, but Michael Floyd's 4.47 forty time in Indianapolis hurt their chances. At least according to Chicago's coaching staff, the offensive line isn't as big a weakness as the media claims it to be. The Bears are in danger of losing two of their top three cornerbacks to free agency, while top CB Charles Tillman is getting up there in age. An aggressive tackler with plus size, Kirkpatrick would start at left corner in Week 1.

20. Titans - Georgia G Cordy Glenn
Glenn made a strong case to stay at tackle in the pros by showing rare athleticism for a 6-foot-6, 346-pound behemoth at the Combine. He has left-tackle length with 35 3/4-inch arms. But Glenn would play guard in Tennessee, replacing free agent RG Jake Scott. Titans brass has stated that upgrading the interior line's run blocking is its top offseason priority. Glenn would immediately be the team's best guard, and he could kick outside to tackle in the event of a David Stewart injury.

21. Bengals - South Carolina CB Stephon Gilmore
The Bengals will think long and hard about a corner at No. 17, but a fine fallback option awaits should Cincinnati bypass Kirkpatrick for an offensive difference maker. Gilmore was the SEC's third best cornerback last season, and possesses raw speed (4.40) superior to both Kirkpatrick and Claiborne. Physical and rangy (6'0/190, 31-inch arms) with plenty of playmaking ability, Gilmore patterns his game after Al Harris as a press-man corner. Fitting defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer's style of play, Gilmore wouldn't struggle to turn aging Nate Clements into a reserve.

22. Rams (Projected Trade) - Penn State DT Devon Still
On both sides of the ball, line play has been a seemingly unfixable deficiency for St. Louis. At the 22nd pick, the Rams would consider both Still and Stanford's Jonathan Martin if the draft plays out as we project. Still is more of a sure thing, and coach Jeff Fisher's defenses have long featured dominant interior performance. Look for the Rams to draft the best offensive player left at No. 33.

23. Lions - Stanford OT Jonathan Martin
The Lions plan to re-sign free agent left tackle Jeff Backus, but he's not long for the league going on age 35 and returning from a biceps tear. Contract-year right tackle Gosder Cherilus is coming off another poor season. Martin could give Cherilus a run for his money in training camp while being groomed as Backus' long-term replacement. Boston College's Luke Kuechly could be an enticing alternative should the Lions fail to retain free agent middle linebacker Stephen Tulloch.

24. Steelers - Ohio State OT Mike Adams
Adams' soft playing style doesn't fit the Steelers' usual modus operandi, and he's got plenty of weight-room work to do after benching 225 pounds 19 times in Indy. But the Pittsburgh coaching staff consistently gets the absolute most out of offensive linemen, and they may envision a future star in Adams' tremendous physical gifts. In a best case scenario, Adams could develop into the Steelers' left tackle of the future, with Marcus Gilbert on the right side and Willie Colon at guard.

25. Broncos - Boise State RB Doug Martin
The 2012 defensive tackle class is rising quickly, so much so that the Denver's biggest weakness may not be worth addressing with a reach at No. 25. As Josh Norris has repeatedly mentioned, Martin's game resembles Jonathan Stewart's from the standpoint that he's a built-up running back with versatility to play on all three downs and deceptive, breakaway long speed. Willis McGahee is entering his age-31 season with a long track record of injuries and no value in the passing game.

26. Texans - LSU WR Rueben Randle
Randle plays faster than his 4.55 official forty suggests. ?Unofficially? timed as fast as 4.5-flat in Indy, Randle goes 6-foot-3, 210 and is a defense's worst nightmare in the open field. He averaged 16.8 yards per career reception in the SEC, including a 17.3 mark as a junior in 2011. Randle is ready to start as a No. 2 receiver, and he could be Andre Johnson's long-range successor as Houston's No. 1.

27. Patriots - LSU DT Michael Brockers
Brockers isn't the athletic pass rusher some outlets have claimed him to be, but he is a powerful run defender ideally suited for "five technique." Put together beautifully for 3-4 teams at 6-foot-5, 322 with 35-inch arms, Brockers could help New England transition back to Bill Belichick's preferred defensive system. Just don't get caught up in the hype of Brockers as a top-20 talent.

28. Packers - Virginia Tech RB David Wilson
Wilson is a tough, competitive, explosive runner, and his athleticism shows up on the field. Not the least bit fearful of contact, Wilson possesses rare balance and is ready to break tackles in the pros. The Packers would need to refine Wilson's passing-game skills and vision, but he'd add a breakaway rushing element to an offense that lacks it. His game is suited for a one-cut scheme.

29. Ravens - Wisconsin C/G Peter Konz
Konz was a three-year starting center at Wisconsin, but NFL teams project him to guard at 6-foot-5 and 314 pounds with 33-inch arms. In Baltimore, Konz would be an immediate replacement for likely outgoing left guard Ben Grubbs. Konz could succeed 36-year-old center Matt Birk in 2013.

30. 49ers - Georgia Tech WR Stephen Hill
Playing in a Georgia Tech offense that ran the ball on 81.8 percent of its plays led to some "focus drops" by Hill, but he displayed reliable hands in Combine drills and maximized his college pass-catching chances. Hill's 29.3 yards-per-reception average led Division I last year, and busted Demaryius Thomas' single-season school record. Hill isn't just a workout freak. He is physical after the catch, consistently creates downfield separation, and would be an ideal bookend in San Francisco for Michael Crabtree, who's proved to be more of a short to intermediate NFL receiver.

31. Patriots - Appalachian State WR Brian Quick
Quick packs 220 pounds onto his 6-foot-4 frame, and his 34 1/4-inch arms were second longest among wideouts in Indianapolis. Answering questions about his long speed, Quick was timed "unofficially" as fast as 4.48 in the forty-yard dash. Patriots area scouts put a first-round grade on Quick's 2010-2011 tape, and he's every bit worth this pick for a team pursuing a vertical presence.

32. Giants - Boston College LB Luke Kuechly
At the Combine, Kuechly ranked among the top-five linebackers in the forty-yard dash (4.58), vertical (38 inches), broad jump (10-foot-3), three-cone drill (6.92), 20-yard shuttle (4.12), and 60-yard shuttle (11.43). Inside linebackers don't typically go high on draft day, but none in this year's class has a better shot to crack the top 32 than the most decorated defender in Boston College history. Kuechly would have no trouble winning a Week 1 starting job for the Super Bowl champs.

Just Missed
Stanford TE Coby Fleener, Miami RB Lamar Miller (pictured), North Alabama CB Janoris Jenkins, South Carolina WR Alshon Jeffery, Oklahoma State QB Brandon Weeden, North Carolina LB Zach Brown, Boise State S George Iloka, Nebraska CB Alfonzo Dennard, Michigan State DT Jerel Worthy, Clemson DT Brandon Thompson, Notre Dame S Harrison Smith, Arizona State QB Brock Osweiler, Rutgers WR Mohamed Sanu, UConn DT Kendall Reyes, Clemson DE Andre Branch, Utah State LB Bobby Wagner, Oklahoma CB Jamell Fleming, Nebraska DT Jared Crick, Alabama LB Dont'a Hightower, Georgia TE Orson Charles, Clemson TE Dwayne Allen, Washington DT Alameda Ta'amu, Iowa State T/G Kelechi Osemele, Wisconsin G/C Kevin Zeitler.

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Source: http://www.rotoworld.com/slide/nfl/216/NFL-Post-Combine-Mock-Draft

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